Author: bullbearduck.com

Today, I opened a position against the index at a leverage factor of -1, as the 1-day and 1-week ranged forecasts are negative. The 1-month forecast is marginally positive. The 1-year forecast is still negative.

Initial post from before the Fed’s rate cut: I closed my S&P 500 position today. The 1-day forecast is marginally positive. The 1-week forecast and 1-month forecasts are marginally negative. The 1-year forecast is still negative. Update from after Fed’s rate cut: Today’s forecast is little changed, so I’m not taking a position before the… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-09-18

I eliminated the leverage but am holding a position with the S&P 500. The 1-day ranged forecast is positive, while the 1-week and 1-month ranged forecasts are marginally positive. The 1-year ranged forecast is still negative. Odds are good that I will be active in the market tomorrow, as the Fed’s actions are likely to… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-09-17

I have increased my leverage to a positive factor of 2 for investing in the S&P 500. The 1-day and 1-week ranged forecasts are positive. The 1-month ranged forecast is marginally positive. The 1-year ranged forecast is still negative. Regarding the FOMC meetings in two days, I tried modeling modest parallel interest rate shifts up… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2024-09-16

I opened a position in the S&P 500 without leverage as the 1-day ranged forecast is positive, and the 1-week forecast is marginally positive. I didn’t apply leverage since the 1-month ranged forecast is marginally negative and the 1-year ranged forecast is negative.

I’m still without a position with or against the index based on my model forecasts. The 1-day ranged forecast is only marginally negative, while the 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year ranged forecasts are negative at more meaningful magnitudes.

I’m not invested with or against the S&P 500 index based on my model’s forecast as the 1-day forecast is only marginally negative. The 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year ranged forecasts are all negative at larger magnitudes.

I’m not in a position with or against the S&P 500 based on my model forecasting because the 1-day ranged forecast is marginally positive, while the 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year ranged forecasts are negative.

The magnitude of both the 1-day and 1-week ranged forecasts are too weak to take a position for or against the S&P 500. The 1-week and 1-year ranged forecasts are negative.

I don’t have an S&P 500 position as the 1-day ranged forecast is only marginally negative. The 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year ranged forecasts are all negative. Based on current data, I will still be out tomorrow, but I expect that the BLS jobs report could move forecasts considerably.