Author: bullbearduck.com

Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative I’m still holding my position against the index. Strength of forecasts are weaker than yesterday. If current stock level and interest rates hold, I will exit my current position tomorrow.

Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative The forecasts are little changed regarding expectations since Friday, so I didn’t take the time to say anything about investment thresholds. I’m still holding a position against the index. If current data holds, I anticipate still holding a position against the index tomorrow.

Daily: Negative (>3x Investment Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>2.5x Investment Threshold)Monthly: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold) I’m continuing to short the index as this is a more intensely negative forecast than yesterday. If current conditions hold, I’ll likely continue to hold this position on Monday.

Warning: Take this with a grain of salt. I don’t forecast the jobs numbers to input into my forecast and that’s likely to be a major market mover tomorrow. Daily: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)Monthly: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)Annually: Marginally negative Given this forecast, I took short… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-12-04

Daily: Negative (right at the threshold to invest)Weekly: Negative (~70% over threshold to invest)Monthly: Marginally negative (slightly under threshold to invest)Quarterly: Negative (~90% over threshold to invest)Annually: Marginally negative (~60% under investment threshold My reaction to these forecasts was to stay out of the market. Technically, my rules say to short this circumstance, but I… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast

Daily: Marginally Negative, ~0Weekly: Negative, slightly over my investing thresholdMonthly: Marginally Negative, ~75% of my investing thresholdQuarterly: Negative, ~70% over my investing thresholdAnnually: Marginally Negative, ~ 60% of investing threshold My current short-term position on the S&P 500 is simply out due to the daily forecast not being of stronger magnitude. If current data holds… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-12-02

I’m taking a break from daily forecast updates due to a head concussion. I hope to resume in a week or two. As a parting farewell, I’m out of the market today as the weekly forecast is for an expected gain/loss of ~0. Invest at your own risk.

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Positive (>2x threshold)Weekly: Flat (~0)Monthly: Flat (Just under positive threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~20% negative threshold)Annually: Flat (~80% negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m waiting for a clearer signal from my forecasts before reentering the market.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Positive (<2x Threshold)Weekly: Flat (effectively 0)Monthly: Positive (Marginally over threshold)Quarterly: Flat (80% of positive threshold)Annually: Flat (2/3 of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for clearer signals.

Daily return trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Flat (30% of negative threshold)Weekly: Flat (50% of negative threshold)Monthly: Flat (80% of positive threshold)Quarterly: Flat (<10% of negative threshold)Annually: Flat (75% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m out. My forecasts aren’t latching on the market trending up nor down at the moment. FWIW,… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-10-01