Author: bullbearduck.com

Warning: Take this with a grain of salt. I don’t forecast the jobs numbers to input into my forecast and that’s likely to be a major market mover tomorrow. Daily: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)Monthly: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)Annually: Marginally negative Given this forecast, I took short… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-12-04

Daily: Negative (right at the threshold to invest)Weekly: Negative (~70% over threshold to invest)Monthly: Marginally negative (slightly under threshold to invest)Quarterly: Negative (~90% over threshold to invest)Annually: Marginally negative (~60% under investment threshold My reaction to these forecasts was to stay out of the market. Technically, my rules say to short this circumstance, but I… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast

Daily: Marginally Negative, ~0Weekly: Negative, slightly over my investing thresholdMonthly: Marginally Negative, ~75% of my investing thresholdQuarterly: Negative, ~70% over my investing thresholdAnnually: Marginally Negative, ~ 60% of investing threshold My current short-term position on the S&P 500 is simply out due to the daily forecast not being of stronger magnitude. If current data holds… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-12-02

I’m taking a break from daily forecast updates due to a head concussion. I hope to resume in a week or two. As a parting farewell, I’m out of the market today as the weekly forecast is for an expected gain/loss of ~0. Invest at your own risk.

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Positive (>2x threshold)Weekly: Flat (~0)Monthly: Flat (Just under positive threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~20% negative threshold)Annually: Flat (~80% negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m waiting for a clearer signal from my forecasts before reentering the market.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Positive (<2x Threshold)Weekly: Flat (effectively 0)Monthly: Positive (Marginally over threshold)Quarterly: Flat (80% of positive threshold)Annually: Flat (2/3 of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for clearer signals.

Daily return trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Flat (30% of negative threshold)Weekly: Flat (50% of negative threshold)Monthly: Flat (80% of positive threshold)Quarterly: Flat (<10% of negative threshold)Annually: Flat (75% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m out. My forecasts aren’t latching on the market trending up nor down at the moment. FWIW,… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-10-01

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>3x threshold)Weekly: Negative (Marginally over threshold)Monthly: Flat (80% of positive threshold)Quarterly: Flat (5% of positive threshold)Annually: Flat (70% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I exited my position despite the daily and weekly forecasts still suggesting a negative trend, as the negative nature of forecasts… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-30

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>6x Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>5x Threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x ThresholdQuarterly: Flat (~50% Negative Threshold)Annually: Flat (~70% Negative Threshold) Invest at your own risk. Despite a loss over the last two business days (but up overall), I’m still in my position against the index.

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>6x over threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x over threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2.75x threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~60% of negative threshold)Annually: Flat(~75% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. Despite the cut back on gains today, I’m still in my negative position against the market. My models more strongly suggest negative returns… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-26