Category: Blog

Ranged forecasts (daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly) suggest negative daily trends. This is also the case when assuming a higher recession probability of 50%. Thus, I’m short the market using an inverse ETF. I’m not leveraging/gearing my position due to the unpredictability of tariff policy. Invest at your own risk.

Sorry, I didn’t keep up with this while on vacation last week. All ranged forecasts except the annual forecast suggest a negative trend, whether I force the recession probability variable up to 50% or not. Thus, I effectively shorted the index with an inverse ETF. I am steering clear of leverage given the volatility produced… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-07-08

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Under normal circumstances this would result in me investing in an index fund. However, forcing the recession risk to 50%, suggests staying out. Higher recession risk based trends:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecastsDaily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat However, if I assume an increased recession risk of 50%,Daily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Thus, I’m still sitting out, but a slight improvement in forecasts would cause me to invest in an index fund. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: PositiveMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Under typical circumstances, I’d invest in the S&P 500 index given this forecast. However, a forecast with assumptions of increased 50% recession risk suggests a different story. Weekly: NegativeMonthly: Negative Due to the weekly forecast being negative, I’m staying cautious and staying uninvested.… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-23

Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecastsDaily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat I’m sidelined for due to the weekly forecast not aligning better with the daily forecast. When the forecasts are forced to an increased recession risk of 50%, the forecasts are more negative than those stated above. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat I’m on the sidelines given the different expectations based on daily and weekly forecasts. Looking alternatively at forecasts that assume a 50% recession risk, the trend expectations are considerably more negative, but I’m using that negative scenario forecast as a sanity check of… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-18

Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: PositiveMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Since the Daily and Weekly trends aren’t complimentary, I’m sidelined on timing investments in the index. Invest at your own risk. Extra info:Trends based on forecast with 50% recession riskDaily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat

Daily trend expectations from ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat I’m not invested in a timing position since the daily and weekly forecasts aren’t aligned. Forcing the data up to a 50% recession risk reinforces this stance with the daily forecast suggesting a positive trend and the weekly forecast suggesting a negative trend. Invest… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-16

Daily Trend Expectations from Ranged Forecasts intaking standard dataDaily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: FlatQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat With altered data (forcing recession probability variable to 50%)Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Based on these forecasts, I am sitting out of the market regarding timing based investments. I’m waiting for a time that the Daily and Weekly forecasts (both… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-06-13