Category: Blog

Daily: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Weekly: Marginally negative (~30% of investment threshold)Monthly: Marginally negative (~50% of investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (90% over investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative Based on the weekly forecast not being over the investment threshold, I’m sitting out regarding short-term index investing.

Daily: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Weekly: Marginally negative (~50% under threshold)Monthly: Marginally negative (~50% under threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x threshold)Annually: Marginally negative Regarding short-term S&P index investing, I’m on the sidelines due to the weak weekly forecast. If current data remains steady, I anticipate also sitting out tomorrow. However, tomorrow is an irregular BLS reporting day,… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-12-15

Daily: Positive (slightly over investment threshold)Weekly: Marginally negative (~40% of investment threshold)Monthly: Marginally negative (~50% of investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still not short-term invested based on these models. If current data holds steady, I’m not anticipating any entry into a position Monday either.

Daily: Marginally positive (~20% of investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Monthly: Marginally Negative (Slightly under investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x investment threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I’m still sitting out, regarding my short term model-based investment strategy. If current data hold forecasts will be even milder regarding returns tomorrow, meaning I will likely still be sitting out.

Daily: Marginally negative (~2/3 of investment threshold)Weekly: Negative (~50% over threshold)Monthly: Marginally negative (slightly under threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x Threshold)Annually: Marginally negative I exited the market today given the weakening strength of forecasting. If conditions hold, tomorrow’s forecast could be negative enough to justify getting back in against the market. The strength of the quarterly forecast… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-12-10

Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative I’m still holding my position against the index. Strength of forecasts are weaker than yesterday. If current stock level and interest rates hold, I will exit my current position tomorrow.

Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Marginally negative The forecasts are little changed regarding expectations since Friday, so I didn’t take the time to say anything about investment thresholds. I’m still holding a position against the index. If current data holds, I anticipate still holding a position against the index tomorrow.

Daily: Negative (>3x Investment Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>2.5x Investment Threshold)Monthly: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold) I’m continuing to short the index as this is a more intensely negative forecast than yesterday. If current conditions hold, I’ll likely continue to hold this position on Monday.

Warning: Take this with a grain of salt. I don’t forecast the jobs numbers to input into my forecast and that’s likely to be a major market mover tomorrow. Daily: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)Monthly: Negative (Slightly over investment threshold)Quarterly: Negative (>2x Investment Threshold)Annually: Marginally negative Given this forecast, I took short… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-12-04

Daily: Negative (right at the threshold to invest)Weekly: Negative (~70% over threshold to invest)Monthly: Marginally negative (slightly under threshold to invest)Quarterly: Negative (~90% over threshold to invest)Annually: Marginally negative (~60% under investment threshold My reaction to these forecasts was to stay out of the market. Technically, my rules say to short this circumstance, but I… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast