Category: Blog

The daily and weekly forecasts both suggest negative daily return trends. Thus, I’m short the market as of this afternoon. Invest at your own risk. The monthly and quarterly forecasts also suggest negative daily trends. Note, if I assume a 50% recession risk, the daily, weekly, and monthly forecasts still suggest negative daily trends. Invest… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-04

The daily forecast suggests a negative daily trend while the weekly forecast suggests a positive daily trend. I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a clearer signal. Invest at your own risk.

The daily forecast suggests a positive daily trend, while longer ranged forecasts, including weekly do not. Thus, I’m on the sidelines. Invest at your own risk.

The daily model suggests a positive trend while longer term models suggest a negative trend. I’m sitting out waiting for a more consistent set of forecasts. Invest at your own risk.

The daily forecast suggests a positive daily trend unlike longer ranged forecasts. Thus, I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a clearer signal to invest. Invest at your own risk.

The daily forecast suggests a positive trend, unlike the longer ranged forecasts. I’m sitting out waiting for a clearer investing signal from my forecasts. Invest at your own risk.

Daily return trends based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: FlatMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Counterintuitively, assuming an increased 50% recession risk paints a rosier picture with the weekly ranged forecast suggesting a positive return trend. I’m on the sidelines based on the weekly forecast not better complimenting the daily forecast. Invest at your own risk.

The daily ranged forecast suggests positive daily trends, disagreeing with longer ranged forecasts that suggest negative daily trends. I’m sitting out waiting for clearer signals. Invest at your own risk.

The daily model suggests a positive trend, disagreeing with all the other longer ranged models. I exited my position due to lack of consistency in suggested daily trends between daily and weekly ranged forecasts. Invest at your own risk.

My ranged forecasts (daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly) all still suggest that daily trends will be negative in the future. This modeling holds if I assume a higher 50% recession risk. Thus, I’m still invested against the market. Invest at your own risk. If data is little changed between today and tomorrow, I may end… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-07-10