Category: Blog

Despite the Jackson Hole speech moving markets up this morning, my models still suggest negative daily return trends based on ranged forecasts. I’m still invested against the index, but thankfully not significantly leveraged, given this morning. Invest at your own risk. On the horizon: Trump is actively threatening to fire a Lisa Cook, a Fed… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-22

The ranged forecasts for my model support daily returns trending negative.Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Thus, I’m still invested against the market, and I have made a nice return thus far (+1.45% since 8-15). Invest at your own risk. The financial news is pointing towards Powell’s Jackson Hole speech being the next significant market… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-21

Ranged forecasts suggest negative trends for daily market results.Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnual: Flat Thus, I’m still invested against the market. Unless data changes, a similar forecast will likely hold tomorrow. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trends based on ranged forecasts suggest negative short term outlook.Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat If one assumes a 50% recession risk rather than using the models’ standard Sahm indicator, then the Quarterly forecast is also flat. I’m currently invested against the market. Invest at your own risk.

My ranged model forecasts from daily to quarterly all suggested negative daily return trends for the moment. Assuming a 50% inflation probability, results in the same trend forecasts. Thus, I’ve opened a position against the market for now. Note, long-term shorting the market is rarely a good idea. Invest at your own risk. For what… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-08-15

Based on ranged forecasts, the daily ranged forecasts suggests a positive daily trend while longer ranged forecasts suggest a negative daily trend. I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a more consistent signal. Invest at your own risk.

Daily trend projections based on ranged forecasts:Daily: PositiveWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: NegativeAnnually: Flat Since the daily and weekly forecasts aren’t in agreement, I’m sitting out waiting for a clearer signal. Invest at your own risk.

I exited my positions today in preparation for stepping away for a few days. This should not be taken as a market forecast. Invest at your own risk. Due to scarcity of time, I skipped running the models since it wouldn’t change my own trading behavior.

The daily and weekly ranged forecast versions of my model suggest negative daily trends, as do the alternate data version with an increased recession probability factor of 50%. Thus, I’m still invested against the index. Invest at your own risk.

Daily and weekly forecasts suggest negative daily trend, even when assuming a higher 50% recession probability. Thus, I’m still short the index. If current data holds tomorrow, I may exit then. Invest at your own risk.