Daily Return Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>3x Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4 Threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2 Threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~1/2 Negative Threshold)Annually: Flat (~1/2 Negative Threshold) Invest at your own risk. I continue to hold a short-term position against the market since 9/22 for a +1.7% return.
S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-24
Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Negative (>3x threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~2/3 negative threshold)Annual: Flat (~50% negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m holding a short-term position against the index.
S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-23
Daily Trend Expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: NegativeWeekly: NegativeMonthly: NegativeQuarterly: Flat (~2/3 of negative threshold)Annually: Flat (~50% of negative threshold) Invest at your own risk. I’m still invested against the index based on these forecasts.
S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-22
Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecastDaily: Negative (>3x Threshold)Weekly: Negative (>4x Threshold)Monthly: Negative (>2x Threshold)Quarterly: Flat (~2/3 Negative Threshold)Annually: Flat (1/2 Negative Threshold) Invest at your own risk. I entered a position against the index today.
S&P 500 Forecasts 2025-09-19
Daily trend expectations based on ranged forecasts:Daily: Flat (Under negative threshold by ~40%)Weekly: Negative (~4 times threshold)Monthly: Negative (~2.5 times threshold)Quarterly: Flat (Under negative threshold by ~25%)Annually: Flat (Under threshold by ~50%) Due to the daily forecast, I’m not short-term invested with or against the index. Invest at your own risk.
S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-18
The daily forecast suggests a flat daily trend. Thus, I’m not invested short-term with or against the index. Invest at your own risk. The weekly and monthly forecast suggest a negative daily return trend. The quarterly and annual ranged forecasts suggest a flat dailyt return trend.
S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-16
As the daily, weekly, and monthly ranged forecasts are all negative enough to suggest a negative daily return trend, I’d normally invest against the index now. I didn’t today, because I was wrapped up in work up until the time of the market close. Invest at your own risk.
S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-15
The daily trends projected by the daily and weekly ranged forecasts don’t agree, so I’m on the sidelines. Invest at your own risk.
S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-11
The daily and quarterly ranged forecasts suggest positive daily return trends. The weekly and monthly ranged forecasts suggest negative daily return trends. Given the inconsistent trend expectations for daily and weekly ranged forecasts, I’m not short-term investing in the S&P 500. Invest at your own risk. For what it’s worth, the annually ranged forecast suggests… Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast 2025-09-11
S&P Forecast 2025-09-09
Sorry, I got wrapped up in work yesterday. The daily and quarterly forecast suggests a positive daily return trend while the weekly and monthly forecasts suggest a negative daily return trend. The annual forecast suggests a flat daily trend. Since the daily and weekly forecasts do not suggest the same trend, I exited my short-term… Continue reading S&P Forecast 2025-09-09